From a survey of support for the alternative vote system:
"The survey predicts a 68% no vote against just 32% for yes and, in line with other recent polls, suggests support for electoral change has slumped further since a Guardian/ICM poll last month revealed the growing size of the no lead. The lead then was 16 points, compared with 36 now.
That suggests the campaign has been overwhelmingly lost by the Yes to AV alliance, which began the year with an apparent lead in the polls. In February, a Guardian/ICM poll put the yes camp ahead by two points"
Are people mad? The only reasons not to vote for alternative vote are 1. possibility of electoral fraud from the introduction of voting machines, 2. the hegemonic role of political parties is seen as beneficial.
Essentially, the outcome of alternative vote ought to be fairly close to having a duopolistic election and an open primary at the same time. It would provide an opportunity to end the situation where people feel obliged to vote for hideous new labour warmongers in order to retard NHS privatisation for a couple more years. It frustrates me when people talk about these things in completely abstract terms, forgetting the forces really in play. This is an opportunity to take out egregiously bad politicians - the people who really voted for bombing Libya last month - I really don't understand why people would want to vote against that.